The following graphs provide a look at the US economy from a variety of perspectives including the stock market’s current volatility, new business creation (by state and across the country), as well as government bond issuances and interest rate trends to aid finance officers in forecasting debt issuance and other fiscal decisions.

  • New Business Starts*: an increase in the number of new businesses can signal a strong economy and future hiring.
  • Total Number of Government Bond Issuances: more government bond issues often signify a strong/stable municipal bond market and easier access to low-cost capital for borrowing.
  • Stock Market Volatility Index* (or "Fear Index"): used by investors to measure market risk, fear, and stress before investing. If high, the market is unstable and investment is likely riskier.
  • Interest Rate Spread (10-year Treasury Note minus 2-year Treasury Note): used by investors to try to understand future economic trends. When the market foresees an environment of stronger growth, higher inflation, and/or interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve, the yield curve steepens which means the yields on longer-term bonds rise more than the yields on short-term bonds. Conversely, when investors expect weaker growth, lower inflation, and easier Fed policy, the yield curve often flattens meaning yields on longer-term bonds fall more than yields on short-term issues.[1]
  • US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)*: Strong GDP typically signals a strong economy.
  • New Business Starts (per 100k Citizens, Jan 2020): new business starts normalized by population.

[1] Kenny, Thomas. The U.S. Treasury Yield Spread. https://www.thebalance.com/2-to-10-year-us-treasury-yield-spread-1976-present-417139. The Balance. July 30, 2019.