Without probabilities, the only way to deal with risk is the gut. Unfortunately, research has shown that using your gut feel to manage risk leads to inconsistent, overconfident, and just plain wrong decisions. The Insurance industry, for examples, is based on probabilistic thinking and some of the same concepts that make insurance companies successful can be used to help local governments make better decisions. In this session, you will learn about essential concepts in applying probabilities that will help you see uncertainty in the world differently and help you make better decisions for your organization.