Local governments are subject to all kinds of risks, from natural disasters, to cyberattacks, to the risk actual revenues will come in under the forecast. Management guru Peter Drucker famously said, “If you can't measure it, you can't manage it.” It stands, then, that a first step towards managing these risks is being able to measure them. Probabilistic thinking is the essential discipline for measuring risk. This session will provide an introduction to probabilistic thinking by equipping you with five essential tools for getting your mind around risks and setting you up to measure and manage risks with rigor. We’ll also provide Excel spreadsheets to help you apply and practice these skills.