Sam Savage

Executive Director, ProbabilityManagement.org

Sam Savage

Dr. Sam L. Savage has been instrumental in helping GFOA bring risk-aware, probabilistic thinking to public finance.  Based on Dr. Savage’s work, GFOA has helped many cities better take account of risk when determining their optimal financial reserve levels. Dr. Savage has supported many other initiatives to help GFOA bring a new and better perspective to the risks that face public finance officers.

Dr. Savage is the Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, PG&E, Wells Fargo, Kaiser Permanente and others, and Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics was a founding board member. Dr. Savage is author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012) and Chancification: How to Fix the Flaw of Averages (2022).  He is an Adjunct Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University and a Fellow of Cambridge University's Judge Business School. He is the inventor of the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), an auditable data array for conveying uncertainty. Dr. Savage received his Ph.D. in computational complexity from Yale University.