Risk Assessment

Managing Risk in Revenue Forecasts: Applying Probabilistic Thinking with Excel Part 1: The Foundations


November 16, 2020

2 p.m.-3 p.m. ET

  • Field of Study: Finance
  • Credits: 1.00
  • Prerequisite: understanding of excel
  • Status: This event has availability.

We live in a volatile and uncertain world. However, that does not mean that local governments can’t plan for the future. There are proven techniques for planning under conditions of uncertainty that have been in use for years in industries like insurance, investment planning, and risk management. Recent technological advances have brought these same techniques to issues of local government, like revenue forecasting. This webinar is the first in a series on to how you how apply these approaches. In Part 1, we will teach you how to think about risk quantitatively and probabilistically, using a pre-built risk model.

This webinar is limited to 100 participants.

Who Will Benefit: CFO/Finance Director, Budget Manager, Budget Analyst/Controller/Accountant/Treasurer/Debt Manager

Learning Objectives:
  • Learn about the “Flaw of Averages,” a set of systematic errors that occur when single numbers, such as averages, are substituted for uncertainties.
  • Demonstrate how the Flaw of Averages explains why so many local government plans are behind schedule, beyond budget and below projection.
  • Learn to navigate a pre-built revenue risk analysis Excel model, which estimates the chances of achieving any specified level of revenue. Students will receive a copy of the model.

  • Member Price: $35.00
  • Non-member Price: $50.00