Informed Decision-Making through Forecasting: A Practitioner's Guide to Government Revenue Analysis Resources
Additional Articles from the Authors
Chapter 4, Exploratory Analysis
- Exhibit 4.13 Classical Decomposition Method, assuming Multiplicative Seasonal Factors (Excel)
- Exhibit 4.15 Classical Decomposition Additive, assuming Additive Seasonal Factors (Excel)
- Exhibit 4.16 First Difference of the First Period for Sales Tax Revenue and Total Employment (Excel)
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Chapter 5, Judgement Forecasting
Chapter 6, Extrapolation Forecasting
- Exhibit 6.1 Motor Fuel Tax Revenue, Forecast and Error Statistics (Excel)
- Exhibit 6.3 Moving Average Forecast (Excel)
- Exhibit 6.6 Moving Average of the Trend Forecast for Income Revenue (Excel)
- Exhibit 6.9 Single Exponential Smoothing Forecast for Motor Fuel Tax Revenue (Excel)
- Exhibit 6.11 Holt Exponential Smoothing (Excel)
- Exhibit 6.14 Dampened Trend Exponential Smoothing (Excel)
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Chapter 7, Regression Forecasting
- Regression Forecasting Exhibits 7.2, 7.3, 7.6, 7.7, and 7.9 (Excel)
- Exhibit 7.10 Output of Excel Regression Statistics Using the Data in Exhibit 7.9 (Excel)
- Exhibit 7.15 Comparison of Error Statistics for Extrapolation vs. Regression (Excel)
Chapter 8, How to Select a Forecasting Method
- Forecast Competition (Excel)*
- Hold Out Data (Excel)
*Note: GFOA Forecast Competition rules are currently being considered for potential redevelopment.
Chapter 10, Implement Forecasting Methods: Dealing with Uncertainty
- Exhibit 10.4 Prediction Interval (Excel)
- Mini Stress Test Model (Excel)
- Risk Aware Budgeting (magazine article)
- Risk Aware Budgeting Excel model (Excel)
Chapter 12, Use Forecasts: Presentation
- Exhibit 12.1 Price of Government Presentation for the City of Redmond (Excel)
- Exhibit 12.8 Combination Graph with One Vertical Axis (Excel)
- Exhibit 12.9 Using Common Data Presentation Formats
- Exhibit 12.10 The City of Tempe's Golden Cone of Prosperity (Excel)