Informed Decision-Making through Forecasting: A Practitioner's Guide to Government Revenue Analysis Resources

Additional Articles from the Authors

Chapter 4, Exploratory Analysis

  • Exhibit 4.13 Classical Decomposition Method, assuming Multiplicative Seasonal Factors (Excel)
  • Exhibit 4.15 Classical Decomposition Additive, assuming Additive Seasonal Factors (Excel)
  • Exhibit 4.16 First Difference of the First Period for Sales Tax Revenue and Total Employment (Excel)
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Chapter 5, Judgement Forecasting

Chapter 6, Extrapolation Forecasting

  • Exhibit 6.1 Motor Fuel Tax Revenue, Forecast and Error Statistics (Excel)
  • Exhibit 6.3 Moving Average Forecast (Excel)
  • Exhibit 6.6 Moving Average of the Trend Forecast for Income Revenue (Excel)
  • Exhibit 6.9 Single Exponential Smoothing Forecast for Motor Fuel Tax Revenue (Excel)
  • Exhibit 6.11 Holt Exponential Smoothing (Excel)
  • Exhibit 6.14 Dampened Trend Exponential Smoothing (Excel)
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Chapter 7, Regression Forecasting

Chapter 8, How to Select a Forecasting Method

*Note: GFOA Forecast Competition rules are currently being considered for potential redevelopment.

Chapter 10, Implement Forecasting Methods: Dealing with Uncertainty

Chapter 12, Use Forecasts: Presentation

Chapter 13, Use Forecast: Monitor and Update