Informed Decision-Making through Forecasting: A Practitioner's Guide to Government Revenue Analysis Resources

Additional Articles from the Authors

Chapter 4, Exploratory Analysis

  • Exhibit 4.13 Classical Decomposition Method, assuming Multiplicative Seasonal Factors (Excel)
  • Exhibit 4.15 Classical Decomposition Additive, assuming Additive Seasonal Factors (Excel)
  • Exhibit 4.16 First Difference of the First Period for Sales Tax Revenue and Total Employment (Excel)
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Chapter 5, Judgement Forecasting

Chapter 6, Extrapolation Forecasting

  • Exhibit 6.1 Motor Fuel Tax Revenue, Forecast and Error Statistics (Excel)
  • Exhibit 6.3 Moving Average Forecast (Excel)
  • Exhibit 6.6 Moving Average of the Trend Forecast for Income Revenue (Excel)
  • Exhibit 6.9 Single Exponential Smoothing Forecast for Motor Fuel Tax Revenue (Excel)
  • Exhibit 6.11 Holt Exponential Smoothing (Excel)
  • Exhibit 6.14 Dampened Trend Exponential Smoothing (Excel)
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Chapter 7, Regression Forecasting

  • Coming Soon

Chapter 8, How to Select a Forecasting Method

  • Forecast Competition (Excel)*
  • Hold Out Data (Excel)
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*Note: GFOA Forecast Competition rules are currently being considered for potential redevelopment.

Chapter 10, Implement Forecasting Methods: Dealing with Uncertainty

  • Exhibit 10.4 Prediction Interval (Excel)
  • Risk Aware Budgeting (magazine article)
  • Risk Aware Budgeting Excel model
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Note: Colorado Springs' Normal Distribution Model (excel) is coming soon.

Chapter 12, Use Forecasts: Presentation

  • Exhibit 12.1 Price of Government Presentation for the City of Redmond (Excel)
  • Exhibit 12.8 Combination Graph with One Vertical Axis (Excel)
  • Exhibit 12.10 The City of Tempe's Golden Cone of Prosperity (Excel)
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Note: Using Common Data Presentation Formats (excel) is coming soon.

Chapter 13, Use Forecast: Monitor and Update