Risk Assessment

Sample Wildfire Risk Model


This model, developed GFOA estimates the chance of a county depleting its reserve over a ten year period due to wildfire risk. When you make a change to a green assumption cell, 10,000 trials are run for each of ten years for a total of 100,000 calculations using the Excel Data Table.

The data, provided by AON, came from a complex simulation built and compiled on large, distributed computer networks on which event generation can take many days to run.

The Open SIPmath™ Standard from 501(c)(3) nonprofit ProbabilityManagement.org conveys uncertainty as arrays of auditable data called SIPs, which obey the laws of arithmetic and the laws of probability. It is compatible with virtually any computer platform

  • Publication date: October 2023